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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.