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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|